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Poker Hand Win Percentages

1 June 2009

 Poker Hand Win Percentages

In a Texas Holdem Poker game, it is very important to have a good understanding of which hands are strong, and which hands are weak.  Everyone knows that AA is the best hand, and that 72 offsuit is one of the worst.  But what you might not know is the percent of time that every single possible hand wins against a random hand, or against a hand in a certain range.

The color coded charts below show how likely a hand is to win in certain scenarios.  The upper right half of the hand chart contains suited hands, the lower left half of the hand chart is offsuit hands.   Although, excepting heads up matches, you won’t often be up against a single random hand, these charts are very useful in helping to determine your starting hand selections.

The first chart shows the odds of every hand against any random hand, i.e. if your opponent pushes all in every hand regardless of his cards, these are your odds to beat him.

	Hand Win Percentages Against A Random Hand
	A	K	Q	J	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2
A	0.851	0.669	0.662	0.654	0.647	0.629	0.621	0.611	0.601	0.599	0.590	0.581	0.573
K	0.654	0.824	0.633	0.624	0.617	0.599	0.583	0.575	0.568	0.557	0.549	0.540	0.532
Q	0.644	0.615	0.798	0.602	0.594	0.577	0.561	0.544	0.537	0.528	0.518	0.511	0.502
J	0.636	0.605	0.581	0.775	0.575	0.558	0.540	0.522	0.506	0.499	0.490	0.482	0.475
10	0.628	0.597	0.572	0.553	0.748	0.539	0.524	0.505	0.490	0.473	0.465	0.457	0.448
9	0.607	0.577	0.554	0.532	0.516	0.720	0.507	0.491	0.474	0.457	0.438	0.432	0.425
8	0.599	0.560	0.536	0.515	0.497	0.482	0.691	0.478	0.463	0.446	0.427	0.409	0.402
7	0.589	0.552	0.517	0.496	0.479	0.463	0.450	0.662	0.453	0.437	0.419	0.401	0.382
6	0.577	0.542	0.511	0.478	0.461	0.446	0.433	0.424	0.631	0.432	0.414	0.396	0.378
5	0.578	0.533	0.502	0.472	0.442	0.426	0.414	0.405	0.401	0.603	0.415	0.397	0.378
4	0.567	0.524	0.492	0.462	0.435	0.407	0.394	0.386	0.381	0.381	0.569	0.387	0.369
3	0.558	0.514	0.484	0.453	0.426	0.400	0.374	0.366	0.361	0.362	0.351	0.536	0.361
2	0.550	0.506	0.473	0.444	0.417	0.391	0.368	0.346	0.341	0.343	0.333	0.323	0.503

 

This shows the odds against an opponent who is only playing the top ~25 percent of all hands.  There are some difficult to play hands in the top 25%, but nothing that is complete garbage.   Hand win percentages here are somewhat, but not greatly, weaker than against any random hand.   (Top 25% of hands is as a percentage of hands dealt.  Thus while AA may be 1 of 169 possible hands and 1/169 = .592%, any pocket pair is less likely to come than a non-pair, so any given pair is only .452% of the hands dealt.  Any given suited card, like AK suited, is .302% of the cards dealt, and any any suited combinations, like AQ offsuit, is .905% of the cards dealt.

 

	Hand Win Percentages Against Top 25% of Hands
	Againts Any Pair, Any Suited Ace, Any 2 Broadway Cards, AKo-A6o, 10-9s, 98s, 87s
	A	K	Q	J	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2
A	0.847	0.634	0.608	0.583	0.560	0.510	0.487	0.468	0.452	0.453	0.447	0.439	0.433
K	0.619	0.757	0.500	0.477	0.455	0.423	0.411	0.407	0.398	0.399	0.392	0.389	0.384
Q	0.587	0.471	0.716	0.449	0.430	0.408	0.392	0.377	0.375	0.373	0.368	0.362	0.355
J	0.561	0.447	0.420	0.672	0.411	0.395	0.382	0.370	0.358	0.357	0.356	0.349	0.339
10	0.534	0.426	0.395	0.383	0.626	0.398	0.386	0.368	0.357	0.345	0.346	0.339	0.330
9	0.483	0.391	0.373	0.365	0.367	0.588	0.394	0.379	0.366	0.356	0.341	0.340	0.335
8	0.459	0.375	0.358	0.351	0.351	0.362	0.561	0.384	0.371	0.361	0.345	0.330	0.325
7	0.436	0.372	0.343	0.336	0.336	0.347	0.350	0.536	0.376	0.364	0.353	0.333	0.319
6	0.419	0.368	0.341	0.320	0.319	0.331	0.337	0.343	0.512	0.375	0.359	0.343	0.323
5	0.420	0.365	0.340	0.322	0.311	0.320	0.326	0.332	0.340	0.492	0.373	0.355	0.339
4	0.412	0.359	0.334	0.316	0.305	0.303	0.307	0.315	0.323	0.335	0.474	0.348	0.331
3	0.408	0.353	0.327	0.310	0.299	0.300	0.291	0.299	0.305	0.319	0.313	0.453	0.326
2	0.401	0.347	0.319	0.304	0.293	0.294	0.288	0.280	0.288	0.301	0.294	0.288	0.435

 

As your opponents tighten up, some win percentages drop significantly.  Weak aces lose significant value, because if you get action against an opponent only playing 14% of the hands, there is a good chance you are dominated.   Strong hands also win less, but the drop is less significant.   Ace-King suited loses 6% of it’s win rate (67% to 61%) where A-2 offsuit lost 18% of it’s win rate (55% - 37%)

 

	Hand Win Percentages Against Top 14% of Hands
	Against AA-66, AKs-A7s, KQs-K10s, QJs, AKo-A10o, KQo, KJo, QJo
	A	K	Q	J	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2
A	0.847	0.612	0.566	0.526	0.471	0.436	0.423	0.412	0.406	0.410	0.412	0.405	0.404
K	0.599	0.747	0.458	0.420	0.392	0.376	0.365	0.359	0.354	0.353	0.348	0.349	0.348
Q	0.542	0.431	0.676	0.375	0.368	0.359	0.341	0.330	0.324	0.325	0.325	0.319	0.313
J	0.498	0.385	0.344	0.610	0.359	0.352	0.340	0.325	0.315	0.312	0.314	0.313	0.303
10	0.440	0.357	0.326	0.328	0.554	0.365	0.354	0.334	0.324	0.314	0.316	0.313	0.309
9	0.403	0.341	0.319	0.320	0.331	0.521	0.362	0.349	0.340	0.327	0.314	0.315	0.315
8	0.389	0.325	0.306	0.303	0.317	0.329	0.494	0.352	0.343	0.334	0.320	0.311	0.305
7	0.375	0.320	0.290	0.289	0.300	0.314	0.321	0.462	0.345	0.338	0.326	0.308	0.299
6	0.369	0.320	0.292	0.276	0.288	0.301	0.309	0.315	0.441	0.349	0.335	0.321	0.304
5	0.377	0.317	0.291	0.278	0.278	0.291	0.299	0.303	0.315	0.428	0.349	0.335	0.320
4	0.375	0.315	0.288	0.272	0.276	0.276	0.282	0.291	0.298	0.309	0.422	0.330	0.317
3	0.372	0.312	0.283	0.272	0.272	0.277	0.268	0.277	0.283	0.298	0.296	0.415	0.312
2	0.370	0.310	0.279	0.267	0.269	0.274	0.269	0.261	0.269	0.282	0.280	0.275	0.412

 

You won’t often see a player who only voluntarily plays 6% of the hands (i.e. when not in the big blind will put money in preflop only 1/16 times).  A player who plays that tight you will see play, on average, only 1 hand every 2 rounds at a full table.  But when they play they will have a big hand, and the win range of any given hand against their playing range is very small.  The bottom line is, don’t give rock’s action when you have marginal or even above average, hands. 

 

	Hand Win Percentages Against Top 6.2% of Hands
	Against AA-88, AKs-A10s, KQs, AKo, AQo
	A	K	Q	J	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2
A	0.839	0.529	0.438	0.387	0.350	0.333	0.322	0.322	0.324	0.330	0.332	0.320	0.323
K	0.513	0.703	0.358	0.353	0.352	0.330	0.313	0.313	0.308	0.315	0.304	0.305	0.300
Q	0.407	0.325	0.610	0.343	0.343	0.318	0.297	0.293	0.292	0.292	0.286	0.287	0.282
J	0.348	0.319	0.312	0.538	0.348	0.330	0.315	0.301	0.293	0.293	0.295	0.297	0.286
10	0.317	0.311	0.301	0.313	0.480	0.330	0.314	0.303	0.291	0.285	0.284	0.285	0.275
9	0.291	0.291	0.281	0.296	0.296	0.436	0.314	0.309	0.296	0.289	0.273	0.274	0.278
8	0.279	0.272	0.264	0.277	0.276	0.278	0.384	0.306	0.302	0.283	0.280	0.263	0.261
7	0.279	0.272	0.254	0.267	0.264	0.272	0.272	0.366	0.303	0.297	0.286	0.264	0.256
6	0.279	0.277	0.257	0.259	0.258	0.262	0.264	0.275	0.370	0.315	0.294	0.287	0.266
5	0.292	0.272	0.255	0.260	0.245	0.250	0.254	0.263	0.279	0.367	0.320	0.299	0.284
4	0.287	0.272	0.252	0.254	0.244	0.237	0.239	0.249	0.263	0.273	0.362	0.293	0.281
3	0.285	0.269	0.247	0.252	0.241	0.237	0.221	0.239	0.247	0.262	0.261	0.351	0.275
2	0.281	0.263	0.242	0.250	0.238	0.232	0.225	0.218	0.231	0.246	0.244	0.238	0.346

 

Finally you have the top 6 hands.  AA - 10,10 and AK suited.   Nothing is good to play against that range.  Fortunately any single opponent will only get a hand that good 2.5% of the time ( or once every 4 rounds ! ).  If you see someone who is playing that few hands get involved, then get out of their way. 

 

	Hand Win Percentages Against Top 2.5% Of Hands
	Against AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 10-10, AKs
	A	K	Q	J	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2
A	0.808	0.405	0.365	0.328	0.291	0.298	0.304	0.292	0.299	0.304	0.314	0.298	0.305
K	0.379	0.651	0.326	0.291	0.287	0.269	0.265	0.260	0.254	0.269	0.257	0.257	0.252
Q	0.323	0.296	0.505	0.294	0.263	0.259	0.242	0.243	0.249	0.243	0.237	0.238	0.224
J	0.295	0.258	0.250	0.376	0.234	0.243	0.237	0.230	0.205	0.206	0.217	0.221	0.211
10	0.267	0.235	0.217	0.201	0.240	0.228	0.218	0.218	0.199	0.187	0.186	0.188	0.179
9	0.256	0.231	0.214	0.201	0.183	0.227	0.231	0.226	0.210	0.206	0.184	0.188	0.186
8	0.255	0.221	0.212	0.196	0.181	0.189	0.227	0.235	0.222	0.209	0.205	0.190	0.179
7	0.257	0.218	0.198	0.188	0.169	0.184	0.203	0.235	0.226	0.232	0.218	0.192	0.181
6	0.256	0.223	0.204	0.177	0.163	0.174	0.186	0.207	0.233	0.245	0.220	0.212	0.186
5	0.268	0.221	0.205	0.179	0.146	0.162	0.179	0.192	0.206	0.228	0.250	0.226	0.218
4	0.270	0.223	0.201	0.176	0.144	0.143	0.161	0.176	0.189	0.204	0.229	0.223	0.206
3	0.265	0.219	0.195	0.168	0.145	0.145	0.143	0.162	0.173	0.187	0.189	0.218	0.204
2	0.263	0.207	0.192	0.162	0.137	0.141	0.147	0.144	0.156	0.170	0.166	0.159	0.218

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